A Political Earthquake?

Stunned. Sick. Gutted.

A million and one words to describe how I'm feeling following the result last night. Things had looked positive for a while, especially in the Easterhouse section of the constituency where I was working from, but in the end it wasn't enough. The SNP's mammoth effort (they put out more activists and I presume spent more money than we did) was successful and John Mason, widely described by the commentators as the least impressive of the candidates of the by-election, will be serving the people of Glasgow East at least until the next General Election.

I think the first point that has to be made is that Labour activists put in a fantastic effort. As I mentioned in previous blogs, I have been blown away by the commitment and dedication that I have been lucky enough to witness. Activists have come in from across the country and belied the supposed death of our Party. Sadly, it wasn't enough but that doesn't detract from the great work which was done. We need to try and sustain this energy into other constituencies - there are no more safe seats for us.

So why did we lose? Ultimately, it seems that the more affluent areas of the constituency such as Mount Vernon turned out in good numbers and voted SNP, whilst the areas where we had support didn't turn out so well. The drop in our support was not enough to allow the SNp to win (I think) so the impact of tactical voting helped deliver it for them as well. The Lib Dems experienced a big squeeze - I would guess their protest votes they've picked up before transferred to the Nats. I had expected more Tories to vote tactically, but in the end they only lost 1% of the vote share. I think that because they ran a high profile campaign their support, limited in number though it may be, continued to vote for them allowing them a successful third place, exactly what Cameron was looking for.

All in all, exactly the results we did not want.

We are hearing a lot about the reasons behind the loss, with the London commentariat in particular billing it as a referendum on Gordon Brown - indeed Cameron is now calling for an election on the basis of the the 3 by-elections. However, I don't think that this is necessarily true, and reflects the London bias which clouds the judgement of most commentators who find it hard to accept that the rest of the country might be different. People are disappointed with the Government, and indeed the Party (which is the more important bit), but I don't think they viewed this election as a way to get rid of Gordon. Rather, it is a reflection and reminder, and god forbid we needed one, that the SNP are viewed as a serious party who people will entrust to represent them.

For this wasn't a reflection on support for independence - in fact, the SNP's success has been rooted in convincing people that you can vote for them and oppose independence. They have done nothing of real note in their first year of government in Scotland, but because of this they have done nothing to really annoy people, certainly in Glasgow. Becuase the city still has a very efficient Labour majority council, we have not been hit by the SNP-inspired cuts to services which have savaged other parts of the country - the actions of our council have shielded people, a fantastic reflection on Stephen Purcell's team. The SNP talk centre-left even whilst delivering centre-right - unfortunately many people take the information at face value, so if the SNP bill themselves as more Labour than Labour, then they must be.

Central to the SNP's ongoing success is Alex Salmond. Now personally I believe that he is one of the most arrogant, smug creatures to have ever crawled out from under a rock, but the truth is that in Scotland he appears head and shoulders above the rest of our politicians - this includes the entireity of his own party as well. Eventually his arrogance will be his undoing (believe me, that smug smirk that plasters his face will be less appealing when the Nats are under pressure) but in the meantime he is master of all he surveys. Mason was kept out of the spotlight as much as possible, and when he was seen it was invariably with Salmond holding his leash - if you like, he is the Bojo of the SNP. His brief forays into the media beam were spectacular in their incompetence - either in making comments which contradicted the SNP line and demonstrated his hardline fanaticism, or in his inept TV displays in the debates prior to the election. But it didn't matter. His own personal support as a councillor (he received the highest number of first preference votes in the whole of Glasgow) coupled with Salmond's efforts ensured his success.

Margaret Curran was an excellent Labour candidate, and indeed probably brought the result far closer than anyone else would have done. She made a big sacrifice to run for this election - I think she would have become the leader of the Labour group at Holyrood, and indeed we are poorer as a Party if we do not, as would seem likely, have her as our leader in Scotland. She worked hard and is very popular with constituents - in the end, the Party's current travails were just too much to overcome. She will continue to be a wonderful representative for her constituents in Holyrood.

So where now? Well, we have the joys of a council by-election in Ballieston to now look forward to. On a national level, we are definitely in a serious hole just now. Nothing is going our way, and I think we have to hope for a very quiet summer to give ourselves some time to recuperate. We have lost the trust and connection we had with much of the electorate, and need to address this. We talk about listening, but it has to be more than that - it has to be action, but action for a purpose rather than as a kneejerk reaction to media headlines. We have to remember that the SNP have had spectacular by-election results in Glasgow before, and in both cases lost Govan back to us in the subsequent General Election. People were protesting, and choose the best placed party to do so - just as they did with the Tories in Crewe and Nantwich.

We have to recognise that the SNP are the dominant party in Scotland just now. We have been portrayed as being complacent about our support in Glasgow and the West of Scotland, and rightly or wrongly, this has stuck in the public's imagination. The SNP have nothing of substance to offer, but they can play on grievance to great success - afterall, the politics of grievance is their very reason for existance.

We need to take the fight to them. They have dominated the political discourse since the election in 2007, aided by our own turmoil. Essentially we have made it easy for them. We need to listen, but we need to demonstrate that we are dedicated and energised as a Party now as we were in 1997. I witnessed the dynamism of our Party in action over the past couple of weeks, and we now need to harness this.

Stephen Purcell talked on Newsnight last night about the need to refind the dynamism which we possessed in 97 - I like to think he stole the idea from my radical centre blog! =) For me, it is the crucial drive for us. We look tired and stale, devoid of ideas or direction. This isn't a true reflection of our Party - look at the vibrant discourse on here - but it is what the public is told through the media.

I talked about this by-election being a chance to draw a line in the sand. We've lost, and we have been pushed back past that line, with defeat in the next General Election certainly in the likely column. But we can't give up and concede it to the Tories. A Conservative Government in Westminster alongside a SNP Government in Holyrood will signal the end of the Union and a disaster for the people of the UK. We have a responsibility to put up one heck of a fight, to argue our case and defend the people we represent. Despite Cameron's political games with the UUP, we are the party of the Union, and the only party who genuinely try to represent all of the citizens of the UK, rather than just a selct few.

I've been fired up by this election, and I refuse to let the SNP's victory drag me down. If it's a fight they want, then its a fight they will blooming well get. And with hard work, we'll see a Labour MP returned for Glasgow East at the next General Election and a Labour Government continuing to work for the good of the UK.

As the old phrase says, it's always darkest just before dawn - lets make sure that sunrise starts now.