Just heard that John Edwards is dropping out of the Democratic race. Not a huge surprise, but certainly narrows the focus even more to a Obama-Clinton fight. Will be interesting to see if he endorses - my bet would be that he and his supporters go over to Obama.
Another VP nomination maybe?
Showing posts with label Presidential Election 2008. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Presidential Election 2008. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
The Keys to Florida
What a massive, massive win for John McCain in the Florida Primary last night. Although he didn't win by a huge margin (only about 5 points over Romney) it now installs him as the frontrunner for the Republican nomination.
It has been an amazing campaign for McCain. His campaign has been running on fumes for a while now, ever since he was declared dead in the water during the summer, when he was the only candidate to support the surge in Iraq - indeed, he had been suggesting the idea long before Bush proposed it. Some of his main campaign team have been working for free as the money has dried up, yet they have managed to propel him to the forefront of a very crowded pack.
I think that McCain is the most dangerous candidate that the Democratic Party can face in November. Although he has tacked to the right during the primaries, he has a long and respected tradition of bipartisan working and of sticking to his guns, even if his views were unpopular in the Republican Party. (i.e. immigration, campaign finance reform) Although his age would be used against him, his energy is undeniable, particularly when supported by his 90+ mum on the campaign trail. (Indeed, when Chuck Norris made derogatory marks about McCain's age, McCain replied by saying that he would send his mother after him. And seriously, my money would be on her!) He is a former prisoner of war, a highly experienced Senator and foreign policy expert, and would in particular contrast strongly with Barack on a number of issues.
Romney of course is still in the race, although Florida was a blow to his chances. He would present less of a challenge to the Dems, as his record (from liberalish Governor of Massachusetts to the right wing demagogue he is trying to portray himself as now) is very open to attack, if not indeed ridicule. Sadly (as I don't believe it should matter) his religion will count against him too, which would more than cancel out any negativity towards the Democratic candidate being either a woman or an African American.
The other big effect of Florida has been the destruction of the Giuliani campaign. His decision to risk everything on Florida and Super Tuesday was always a dangerous one, but for a while it looked like the lack of a frontrunner might have proved him right. However, McCain's win in South Carolina, Romney's cash and a strange lack of enthusiasm on Giuliani's part combined to push him to a very distant third in Florida. It now looks like he will drop out and endorse McCain, further strengthening his claim to be the favoured candidate.
For the Dems, Florida was largely symbolic as the party has punished the state for bringing its primary forward by banning their delegates. However, it did give a welcome win to the Clinton camp, with her taking 50% of the vote. It is almost definite that Super Tuesday will not finish off the Democratic race, so we can expect this race to keep on running for some time now.
It has been an amazing campaign for McCain. His campaign has been running on fumes for a while now, ever since he was declared dead in the water during the summer, when he was the only candidate to support the surge in Iraq - indeed, he had been suggesting the idea long before Bush proposed it. Some of his main campaign team have been working for free as the money has dried up, yet they have managed to propel him to the forefront of a very crowded pack.
I think that McCain is the most dangerous candidate that the Democratic Party can face in November. Although he has tacked to the right during the primaries, he has a long and respected tradition of bipartisan working and of sticking to his guns, even if his views were unpopular in the Republican Party. (i.e. immigration, campaign finance reform) Although his age would be used against him, his energy is undeniable, particularly when supported by his 90+ mum on the campaign trail. (Indeed, when Chuck Norris made derogatory marks about McCain's age, McCain replied by saying that he would send his mother after him. And seriously, my money would be on her!) He is a former prisoner of war, a highly experienced Senator and foreign policy expert, and would in particular contrast strongly with Barack on a number of issues.
Romney of course is still in the race, although Florida was a blow to his chances. He would present less of a challenge to the Dems, as his record (from liberalish Governor of Massachusetts to the right wing demagogue he is trying to portray himself as now) is very open to attack, if not indeed ridicule. Sadly (as I don't believe it should matter) his religion will count against him too, which would more than cancel out any negativity towards the Democratic candidate being either a woman or an African American.
The other big effect of Florida has been the destruction of the Giuliani campaign. His decision to risk everything on Florida and Super Tuesday was always a dangerous one, but for a while it looked like the lack of a frontrunner might have proved him right. However, McCain's win in South Carolina, Romney's cash and a strange lack of enthusiasm on Giuliani's part combined to push him to a very distant third in Florida. It now looks like he will drop out and endorse McCain, further strengthening his claim to be the favoured candidate.
For the Dems, Florida was largely symbolic as the party has punished the state for bringing its primary forward by banning their delegates. However, it did give a welcome win to the Clinton camp, with her taking 50% of the vote. It is almost definite that Super Tuesday will not finish off the Democratic race, so we can expect this race to keep on running for some time now.
What a massive, massive win for John McCain in the Florida Primary last night. Although he didn't win by a huge margin (only about 5 points over Romney) it now installs him as the frontrunner for the Republican nomination.
It has been an amazing campaign for McCain. His campaign has been running on fumes for a while now, ever since he was declared dead in the water during the summer, when he was the only candidate to support the surge in Iraq - indeed, he had been suggesting the idea long before Bush proposed it. Some of his main campaign team have been working for free as the money has dried up, yet they have managed to propel him to the forefront of a very crowded pack.
I think that McCain is the most dangerous candidate that the Democratic Party can face in November. Although he has tacked to the right during the primaries, he has a long and respected tradition of bipartisan working and of sticking to his guns, even if his views were unpopular in the Republican Party. (i.e. immigration, campaign finance reform) Although his age would be used against him, his energy is undeniable, particularly when supported by his 90+ mum on the campaign trail. (Indeed, when Chuck Norris made derogatory marks about McCain's age, McCain replied by saying that he would send his mother after him. And seriously, my money would be on her!) He is a former prisoner of war, a highly experienced Senator and foreign policy expert, and would in particular contrast strongly with Barack on a number of issues.
Romney of course is still in the race, although Florida was a blow to his chances. He would present less of a challenge to the Dems, as his record (from liberalish Governor of Massachusetts to the right wing demagogue he is trying to portray himself as now) is very open to attack, if not indeed ridicule. Sadly (as I don't believe it should matter) his religion will count against him too, which would more than cancel out any negativity towards the Democratic candidate being either a woman or an African American.
The other big effect of Florida has been the destruction of the Giuliani campaign. His decision to risk everything on Florida and Super Tuesday was always a dangerous one, but for a while it looked like the lack of a frontrunner might have proved him right. However, McCain's win in South Carolina, Romney's cash and a strange lack of enthusiasm on Giuliani's part combined to push him to a very distant third in Florida. It now looks like he will drop out and endorse McCain, further strengthening his claim to be the favoured candidate.
For the Dems, Florida was largely symbolic as the party has punished the state for bringing its primary forward by banning their delegates. However, it did give a welcome win to the Clinton camp, with her taking 50% of the vote. It is almost definite that Super Tuesday will not finish off the Democratic race, so we can expect this race to keep on running for some time now.
It has been an amazing campaign for McCain. His campaign has been running on fumes for a while now, ever since he was declared dead in the water during the summer, when he was the only candidate to support the surge in Iraq - indeed, he had been suggesting the idea long before Bush proposed it. Some of his main campaign team have been working for free as the money has dried up, yet they have managed to propel him to the forefront of a very crowded pack.
I think that McCain is the most dangerous candidate that the Democratic Party can face in November. Although he has tacked to the right during the primaries, he has a long and respected tradition of bipartisan working and of sticking to his guns, even if his views were unpopular in the Republican Party. (i.e. immigration, campaign finance reform) Although his age would be used against him, his energy is undeniable, particularly when supported by his 90+ mum on the campaign trail. (Indeed, when Chuck Norris made derogatory marks about McCain's age, McCain replied by saying that he would send his mother after him. And seriously, my money would be on her!) He is a former prisoner of war, a highly experienced Senator and foreign policy expert, and would in particular contrast strongly with Barack on a number of issues.
Romney of course is still in the race, although Florida was a blow to his chances. He would present less of a challenge to the Dems, as his record (from liberalish Governor of Massachusetts to the right wing demagogue he is trying to portray himself as now) is very open to attack, if not indeed ridicule. Sadly (as I don't believe it should matter) his religion will count against him too, which would more than cancel out any negativity towards the Democratic candidate being either a woman or an African American.
The other big effect of Florida has been the destruction of the Giuliani campaign. His decision to risk everything on Florida and Super Tuesday was always a dangerous one, but for a while it looked like the lack of a frontrunner might have proved him right. However, McCain's win in South Carolina, Romney's cash and a strange lack of enthusiasm on Giuliani's part combined to push him to a very distant third in Florida. It now looks like he will drop out and endorse McCain, further strengthening his claim to be the favoured candidate.
For the Dems, Florida was largely symbolic as the party has punished the state for bringing its primary forward by banning their delegates. However, it did give a welcome win to the Clinton camp, with her taking 50% of the vote. It is almost definite that Super Tuesday will not finish off the Democratic race, so we can expect this race to keep on running for some time now.
Monday, January 07, 2008
The Obama Effect
The race is on!
I freely admit that I am a geek - let's face it, I'm getting highly excited about an election that I have absolutely no vote in. But I do believe that the election of a US President is an event that impacts upon the entire world.
The key story to come out of Iowa from a Dem p.o.v. was of course the success of Barack Obama in winning the caucus. A great result for him and just reward for the improvement that he has demonstrated in his campaigning over the past few weeks. Crucially, his margin of victory was significantly clear over his rivals, and even more crucially, Hillary Clinton came a very disappointing third, trailing John Edwards by a very narrow margin.
It is certainly a great result for Obama, but I don't think he should be measuring the White House curtains quite yet. Although Iowa gives him momentum (and it is looking like he may well build on this with victory in New Hampshire) there is still a very powerful machine behind Hillary Clinton. I think that it would only take one victory for her, particularly in one of the bigger states, could quickly restore the aura of inevitability that she has worked to hard to build up. I don't think that Edwards has enough to his campaign to seriously challenge for the nod - I personally supported him in 04 and believe he would have won the election had the Dems not stupidly nominated Kerry, however he is not as impressive now as he was then. In addition, the Dems are desperate to avoid any links to that disaster of a campaign - the GOP tore Kerry apart on several issues, and would be delighted if they could just roll out the same old tactics again. Well, actually they will do that regardless of who the candidate is, but it won't necessarily be as effective.
On the GOP side, Mike Huckabee's victory in Iowa is a big blow to Mitt Romney's chances. He did win the Wyoming Republican Primary, but this is a pretty insignificant event (Fred Thompson and Duncan Hunter won the remaining delegates which shows you how in touch with national opinion the state is!). For Romney, New Hampshire is crucial now - I think he must win it or run the risk of seeing his campaign die. Giuliani has played a dangerous game of ignoring the early states, so he will came out all guns blazing as the big states come into play, which will further reduce Romney's chances. And of course, polling indicates that McCain has a very real chance of winning NH.
Personally, if I had to support a Republican (with very gritted teeth, naturally!) it would be McCain. I think he is an impressive conviction politician, with a long history of cross party working. Considering how dead in the water his campaign was, his recovery is very impressive - the question now is whether it will be sustainable. So NH is a must win for him too.
So, my predictions for NH - Obama and McCain.
And then the real fun begins.... =)
I freely admit that I am a geek - let's face it, I'm getting highly excited about an election that I have absolutely no vote in. But I do believe that the election of a US President is an event that impacts upon the entire world.
The key story to come out of Iowa from a Dem p.o.v. was of course the success of Barack Obama in winning the caucus. A great result for him and just reward for the improvement that he has demonstrated in his campaigning over the past few weeks. Crucially, his margin of victory was significantly clear over his rivals, and even more crucially, Hillary Clinton came a very disappointing third, trailing John Edwards by a very narrow margin.
It is certainly a great result for Obama, but I don't think he should be measuring the White House curtains quite yet. Although Iowa gives him momentum (and it is looking like he may well build on this with victory in New Hampshire) there is still a very powerful machine behind Hillary Clinton. I think that it would only take one victory for her, particularly in one of the bigger states, could quickly restore the aura of inevitability that she has worked to hard to build up. I don't think that Edwards has enough to his campaign to seriously challenge for the nod - I personally supported him in 04 and believe he would have won the election had the Dems not stupidly nominated Kerry, however he is not as impressive now as he was then. In addition, the Dems are desperate to avoid any links to that disaster of a campaign - the GOP tore Kerry apart on several issues, and would be delighted if they could just roll out the same old tactics again. Well, actually they will do that regardless of who the candidate is, but it won't necessarily be as effective.
On the GOP side, Mike Huckabee's victory in Iowa is a big blow to Mitt Romney's chances. He did win the Wyoming Republican Primary, but this is a pretty insignificant event (Fred Thompson and Duncan Hunter won the remaining delegates which shows you how in touch with national opinion the state is!). For Romney, New Hampshire is crucial now - I think he must win it or run the risk of seeing his campaign die. Giuliani has played a dangerous game of ignoring the early states, so he will came out all guns blazing as the big states come into play, which will further reduce Romney's chances. And of course, polling indicates that McCain has a very real chance of winning NH.
Personally, if I had to support a Republican (with very gritted teeth, naturally!) it would be McCain. I think he is an impressive conviction politician, with a long history of cross party working. Considering how dead in the water his campaign was, his recovery is very impressive - the question now is whether it will be sustainable. So NH is a must win for him too.
So, my predictions for NH - Obama and McCain.
And then the real fun begins.... =)
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