The Obama Effect

The race is on!

I freely admit that I am a geek - let's face it, I'm getting highly excited about an election that I have absolutely no vote in. But I do believe that the election of a US President is an event that impacts upon the entire world.

The key story to come out of Iowa from a Dem p.o.v. was of course the success of Barack Obama in winning the caucus. A great result for him and just reward for the improvement that he has demonstrated in his campaigning over the past few weeks. Crucially, his margin of victory was significantly clear over his rivals, and even more crucially, Hillary Clinton came a very disappointing third, trailing John Edwards by a very narrow margin.

It is certainly a great result for Obama, but I don't think he should be measuring the White House curtains quite yet. Although Iowa gives him momentum (and it is looking like he may well build on this with victory in New Hampshire) there is still a very powerful machine behind Hillary Clinton. I think that it would only take one victory for her, particularly in one of the bigger states, could quickly restore the aura of inevitability that she has worked to hard to build up. I don't think that Edwards has enough to his campaign to seriously challenge for the nod - I personally supported him in 04 and believe he would have won the election had the Dems not stupidly nominated Kerry, however he is not as impressive now as he was then. In addition, the Dems are desperate to avoid any links to that disaster of a campaign - the GOP tore Kerry apart on several issues, and would be delighted if they could just roll out the same old tactics again. Well, actually they will do that regardless of who the candidate is, but it won't necessarily be as effective.

On the GOP side, Mike Huckabee's victory in Iowa is a big blow to Mitt Romney's chances. He did win the Wyoming Republican Primary, but this is a pretty insignificant event (Fred Thompson and Duncan Hunter won the remaining delegates which shows you how in touch with national opinion the state is!). For Romney, New Hampshire is crucial now - I think he must win it or run the risk of seeing his campaign die. Giuliani has played a dangerous game of ignoring the early states, so he will came out all guns blazing as the big states come into play, which will further reduce Romney's chances. And of course, polling indicates that McCain has a very real chance of winning NH.

Personally, if I had to support a Republican (with very gritted teeth, naturally!) it would be McCain. I think he is an impressive conviction politician, with a long history of cross party working. Considering how dead in the water his campaign was, his recovery is very impressive - the question now is whether it will be sustainable. So NH is a must win for him too.

So, my predictions for NH - Obama and McCain.

And then the real fun begins.... =)