The Keys to Florida

What a massive, massive win for John McCain in the Florida Primary last night. Although he didn't win by a huge margin (only about 5 points over Romney) it now installs him as the frontrunner for the Republican nomination.

It has been an amazing campaign for McCain. His campaign has been running on fumes for a while now, ever since he was declared dead in the water during the summer, when he was the only candidate to support the surge in Iraq - indeed, he had been suggesting the idea long before Bush proposed it. Some of his main campaign team have been working for free as the money has dried up, yet they have managed to propel him to the forefront of a very crowded pack.

I think that McCain is the most dangerous candidate that the Democratic Party can face in November. Although he has tacked to the right during the primaries, he has a long and respected tradition of bipartisan working and of sticking to his guns, even if his views were unpopular in the Republican Party. (i.e. immigration, campaign finance reform) Although his age would be used against him, his energy is undeniable, particularly when supported by his 90+ mum on the campaign trail. (Indeed, when Chuck Norris made derogatory marks about McCain's age, McCain replied by saying that he would send his mother after him. And seriously, my money would be on her!) He is a former prisoner of war, a highly experienced Senator and foreign policy expert, and would in particular contrast strongly with Barack on a number of issues.

Romney of course is still in the race, although Florida was a blow to his chances. He would present less of a challenge to the Dems, as his record (from liberalish Governor of Massachusetts to the right wing demagogue he is trying to portray himself as now) is very open to attack, if not indeed ridicule. Sadly (as I don't believe it should matter) his religion will count against him too, which would more than cancel out any negativity towards the Democratic candidate being either a woman or an African American.

The other big effect of Florida has been the destruction of the Giuliani campaign. His decision to risk everything on Florida and Super Tuesday was always a dangerous one, but for a while it looked like the lack of a frontrunner might have proved him right. However, McCain's win in South Carolina, Romney's cash and a strange lack of enthusiasm on Giuliani's part combined to push him to a very distant third in Florida. It now looks like he will drop out and endorse McCain, further strengthening his claim to be the favoured candidate.

For the Dems, Florida was largely symbolic as the party has punished the state for bringing its primary forward by banning their delegates. However, it did give a welcome win to the Clinton camp, with her taking 50% of the vote. It is almost definite that Super Tuesday will not finish off the Democratic race, so we can expect this race to keep on running for some time now.